It took me ten tries to make one above average vaalin.

You can break them in the process of making them? I had no clue....

I only make picks when I need to replace broken ones, so maybe a couple dozen a year (usually vaalin, but occasionally mithril). The vast majority of the time they come out average for me, with maybe 1 in 4 being either exceptional or below average (just a rough estimate, give it a good margin of error). I can't recall ever not having a usable lockpick once I'm done though, even when I was still going through LM.

Starchitin

PS of course, now that I've said something, I'll prolly have the next ten I try to make break in the process

A severed gnomish hand crawls in on its fingertips and makes a rude gesture before quickly decaying and rotting into dust. A gust of wind quickly scatters the dust.