Here is some data i have for about the last year. Total predictions clock in at 969. See below for details. Let me know if i missed any messages and i can add them. I used an app called grepWin to search for specific text strings across multiple files in 1 directory. Feel free to do the same and post your results.

969	<--Total predictions		Message ID
616	63.57%	Positive predictions	A sudden feeling of warmth pervades your soul.
77	7.95%	Straight curses	A shiver runs through your spine
122	12.59%	Careful observation curse reversal	You are certain that your careful observations helped avoid a darker fate.
154	15.89%	Experience curse reversal	You are certain that your experience helped avoid a darker fate.

Damian, a voice from the distant and long-forgotten past.
AIM:DamianDR

Thanks Damian. Mind posting your Astrology skill and bond level with your tool?


- Navesi

Some results of my own with my latest moon mage. No tools. ~400 ranks of astrology. Very rarely does this use a full pool.

282	<--Total predictions	Message ID
165	58.51%	Positive predictions	A sudden feeling of warmth pervades your soul.
71	25.18%	Straight curses	A shiver runs through your spine
15	05.32%	Careful observation curse reversal	You are certain that your careful observations helped avoid a darker fate.
31	10.99%	Experience curse reversal	You are certain that your experience helped avoid a darker fate.

So in short, ~75% success rate using the least optimal scenarios at mid-lowish ranks.

> This is the same as saying once out of every four times you curse yourself.

So use a tool (preferably sect-specific), bond it, fill the pools, get some experience, and don't be surprised that you can't cap out all buffs with a guild ability before you even have all of your spells?

Put another way, it means that a mid-circle moon mage can buff any skill in the game with minimal effort and a 75% success rate.

> I just think there should be a method other than teleo to reverse a curse.

There is. At circle 35 no less: https://elanthipedia.play.net/Category:Heritage_House

> if you have x ranks in astro + DC capped + Decent bonded Tool + Night time + Outside + once or twice a day timer = 100% on self predictions.'

That's... how it works today? Damian just showed how you can get it to a 92% success rate without getting anywhere near cap on astro, without bonded tools, and probably without BC. He didn't say, so let's say maybe you need a ritual spell up too. Not a serious investment.

> When you have 10% chance to curse yourself when you really need a buff, it is often prudent to just avoid the prediction system because of the fact that things tend to go wrong at the worst possible time.

You are a moon mage. Start predicting the future (har har). Seriously though, there's no real situation where you have enough time to predict yourself and you NEED that strong, successful prediction right now. You can take time to prep. If you're trying to give yourself an edge in the wyvern trials (which I don't think balance should be based on) then go work some crafts. The bonus TDPs will give you a better chance against others in the same weight class.

How about we at least get predictions to work on other players? I know everyone will rant and rave that you can rely on a system that is totally RNG even though half the time the buffs BUG out and wont go past 10 ranks.

The system failed me too many times when I really needed a buff for myself and cursed me. I've just realized its way more prudent to avoid if you really need a buff. Because of real experience using it.

Then when you try and help a new player with a buff and you end up giving them a whopping +10 ranks...Just did a prediction on a friend trying to help them learn a scroll. But my 1150+ ranks in arcana turned into a whopping 10 ranks buff with a full pool, capped dc, capped IOTS for CHA increase, nearly 1k ranks in astro and capped AUS and other perception spells. So apparently curses and buffs wont get past 10 ranks on other people. Even if you both re log it wont fix it like some have said in past.

>>Instead of obsessing over the >8% chance of predictions backfiring

RNG is RNG...10% is the best case scenario and even 10% can equal a lot of variance from one person compared to another. There is also a range of how many ranks you get. I have tested it several times now, I continually get more perception from CV than I get from full pool predictions on perception. Too much RNG, too much speculation on how much use the system brings. When will you actually need a prediction to do anything a spell won't do a better job of?

And I really don't see the big deal of asking for a timer that allows 1 or 2 times a day with other factors to get a 100% chance. The obsessive behavior is the vehement defending of the prediction system even though it's convoluted, buggy and has a chance to do as much harm as it can help.


"An' I'm learnin' 'ere in London what the ten-year soldier tells; If you've 'eard the East a-callin', you won't never 'eed naught else. No! you won't 'eed nothin' else"

>>Then when you try and help a new player with a buff and you end up giving them a whopping +10 ranks...Just did a prediction on a friend trying to help them learn a scroll. But my 1150+ ranks in arcana turned into a whopping 10 ranks buff with a full pool, capped dc, capped IOTS for CHA increase, nearly 1k ranks in astro and capped AUS and other perception spells. So apparently curses and buffs wont get past 10 ranks on other people. Even if you both re log it wont fix it like some have said in past.

How many ranks did the target have? Not saying it's working correctly, BUT the amount buffed would be based on their ranks in the target skill, not yours iirc.

While I think it was useful to discuss the cleric systems to get an idea where other non-magic skill systems for buffs, we're heading into GvG territory the more the two are compared directly. Let's stick to just talking about the prediction system please. Thoughts on how to improve, analyze its data, or discuss predictions are welcome to continue.

Thanks,

Helje
DragonRealms Senior Board Moderator

>>I just think there should be a method other than teleo to reverse a curse.

As I mentioned in my last post, there is. Just predict again on the same skill. The Heritage House cantrip I didn't know about and is pretty neat. :)

>>RNG is RNG...10% is the best case scenario and even 10% can equal a lot of variance from one person compared to another.

No, Damian reported an 8% curse rate, and he wasn't close to capped Astrology and didn't use a bonded tool or AUS. Speaking for myself, I do better than 8% by a fair margin, likely due to the bonded tool. It can't really get much better.

>>I have tested it several times now, I continually get more perception from CV than I get from full pool predictions on perception.

This may have to do with your skill and tool, as they affect the potency of predictions as well as curse chance. I tested it yesterday and capped a Perception buff on the first try with a prediction.

>>And I really don't see the big deal of asking for a timer that allows 1 or 2 times a day with other factors to get a 100% chance.

It's not a big deal to ask. All I've been saying is that I think it's pretty unlikely to happen, given how robust and powerful the system is already.

>>And make it so you can actually buy tools that aren't so low quality they end up breaking before bonding.

This is something I wholeheartedly support!

>>The obsessive behavior is the vehement defending of the prediction system even though it's convoluted, buggy and has a chance to do as much harm as it can help.

I certainly want the bug with cursing to be fixed, and any other bugs I'm not aware of. As for it being convoluted and having the curse chance, again I think both are part of a balanced and meaningful design. We can agree to disagree here.

Aerathor, respectfully, I think we've all gotten your point. You are unhappy with the level of uncertainty, and that's okay. Maybe a GM will provide a boost at lower levels, or take other action, who knows. I would just say don't get your hopes up, and in the mean time try to make the best of the system as is.


- Navesi