Thrown test from last night 01/24/2014 04:45 PM CST
Attacker
Light Thrown: 1419 59.48% clear (0/34)


Defender
Shield Usage: 1229 18.98% clear (0/34)
Evasion: 1428 28.15% clear (0/34)


Weapon
A light haralun throwing axe is a light thrown and medium edged melee-ranged weapon.
You are certain that it could do:
poor (2/26) puncture damage
very heavy (10/26) slice damage
moderate (7/26) impact damage
The throwing axe is inadequately (4/17) designed for improving the force of your attacks.
You are certain that the axe is fairly (5/17) balanced and is decently (6/17) suited to gaining extra attack power from your strength.
You are certain that the throwing axe is very strong against damage (14/18), and is in pristine condition (98-100%).
You are certain that the throwing axe weighs exactly 45 stones.

Shield
You are certain that it imposes trivial (2/15) maneuvering hindrance.
This shield is small in size.
You are certain that the shield offers terrible (2/26) to better than fair (9/26) protection.
heavy (9/26) impact damage
You are certain that the shield is fairly (5/17) balanced and is poorly (3/17) suited to gaining extra attack power from your strength.
You are certain that the small shield is rather reinforced against damage (11/18), and is in good condition (80-89%). <--- didn't realize until after test, may have affected numbers


Defender was insig hindered in his armor(all cloth)
Relevant attacking and defending stats were identical(100)
No buffs for either party

Data:

LOB:
Tries: 100
Hit: 0
Miss: 100

THROW:
Tries: 100
Hit: 3
Miss: 97
'light'(1)
'good' (2)

HURL
Tries: 100
Hit: 12
Miss: 88
'light' (1)
'good' (8)
'solid' (1)
'hard' (2)



IM: Dannyboy00001111

"Fool proof system do not take into account the ingenuity of fools, nor the power of numbers."
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Re: Thrown test from last night 01/24/2014 07:20 PM CST
Those numbers are accurate.

The problem is likely many-faceted.

1). Your target was likely in DODGE or BLOCK stance. This gives a small defensive bonus.

2). Your target likely had bonus stance points. A lot of them. This gives a large defensive bonus.

3). Your throwing weapon as compared to the opponents shield is probably a wash, but may have been penalizing you ever so slightly.


So you are looking at 15-20% extra defense vs your offense. I've never liked bonus stance points because they make defense easier as you move up the critter ladder. Critters don't get 20% extra offense, so you become even more invulnerable over time. Not sure what the right answer here is.

I did reduce the randomness of thrown OF modifiers a bit. Might be worth re-testing, but I'm guessing you'd see similar results due to the large defensive bonus your opponent has going for them.




"I have no data yet. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts."
- Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, Sherlock Holmes
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Re: Thrown test from last night 01/24/2014 07:29 PM CST
Thrown is just so hard to use on anything even in 3.0 it seems. I use it as my prime weapon, and as a necromancer can barely hunt with it at level even when using debuffs, and in pvp its a joke to even bother trying. I understand the fact that while outclassing or utilizing a lot of buffs, the damage can stack up pretty quick, but at this point i'm hitting a lot easier with brawling or SE with 100 ranks or more less and that just isn't right. Its a precarious situation though because as I stated before, once you begin to hit a lot its easy to rack up the damage. The only thing I could think of off the top of my head is an attack that is a lot more accurate but gives a bit more RT than the others, even hurl.
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Re: Thrown test from last night 01/24/2014 07:53 PM CST
>> 1). Your target was likely in DODGE or BLOCK stance. This gives a small defensive bonus.

Dodge stance.

>> 2). Your target likely had bonus stance points. A lot of them. This gives a large defensive bonus.

I was controlling both chars for it. He was 100 evade/98 shield.

>> Might be worth re-testing

I'll try it again in a little while if I get time.



IM: Dannyboy00001111

"Fool proof system do not take into account the ingenuity of fools, nor the power of numbers."
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Re: Thrown test from last night 01/24/2014 08:12 PM CST
Gort, I'd love to see that test with the same stances and a reason or well balanced thrown, just to see what difference (if any) balance makes these days.
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Re: Thrown test from last night 01/24/2014 10:19 PM CST

>So you are looking at 15-20% extra defense vs your offense

I don't understand where the 15-20% is coming from... but even if the defender was stanced at 100/100 it would be 1328 vs 1419 even if it was another 20% it would be 1593 vs 1419.

If it is more like 15% defense bonus and he is stanced 100/98... that's 1542 vs 1419.

That's a pretty narrow difference in skills.

How is that a 1% (lob) to 10% (hurl) hit rate?
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Re: Thrown test from last night 01/24/2014 10:38 PM CST
Combat only cares about %s. The actual # of points is meaningless.



"I have no data yet. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts."
- Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, Sherlock Holmes
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Re: Thrown test from last night 01/24/2014 11:01 PM CST


>Combat only cares about %s. The actual # of points is meaningless.

Fair enough, I don't know what those %s are so I was just trying to use what I did know.

My point was I thought evenly matched targets are intended (per a staff post) to be about 66% accurate against each other. As far as I can tell, those two are about as matched in this contest as it's ever gonna get.

I just don't see how this is equating to so little accuracy.

What happens if we do the same test in prime with just throw, what happens if we do the same test with a melee weapon, or TM?
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Re: Thrown test from last night 01/24/2014 11:33 PM CST
The 66% number is wrong for PvP. Likely my fault - we've changed it a number of times this past year in response to testing and player feedback. A purely even attack in PvP has closer to a 25% chance to hit.

I often forget that 7 out of 10 Critters don't use all 3 defenses. They suffer a moderate to large defensive penalty because of this and your chance of hitting one in even combat is close to 66%.

Defense is favored in DR combat because offensive buffs count almost twice as much as defensive buffs. They apply before the OF gets scaled up and compared to the defense score. This includes AIM bonuses and maneuver bonuses. Defense is also more heavily penalized by balance, hindrance, debuffs, previously attacking, etc.

Please keep in mind that 18 extra stance points is pretty equivalent to a defensive buff spell, and combined with the defense bonus from DODGE, lack of balance bonus to the THROWN user and the random THROW penalty (which is now much less)... it isn't as balanced as it might first appear.




"I have no data yet. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts."
- Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, Sherlock Holmes
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